Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Saturday, 26 July 2014

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jul 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 207 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Jul 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at 26/1320Z from Region 2123 (S15E13). There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (27 Jul, 28 Jul, 29 Jul).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 427 km/s at 26/1350Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 26/0640Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 26/0619Z.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (27 Jul), quiet to active levels on day two (28 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (29 Jul).

III. Event Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul

Class M	10%	10%	10%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       26 Jul 117
  Predicted   27 Jul-29 Jul 125/130/135
  90 Day Mean        26 Jul 129

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Jul  009/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Jul  007/007
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul  006/005-009/012-007/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Jul to 29 Jul

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	10%	30%	25%
Minor storm	01%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	15%	20%	20%
Major-severe storm	10%	20%	20%

All times in UTC

Previous rotation Previous day Calendar

Next day Next rotation

<< Go to daily overview page

G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 20:16 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Rovaniemi, Sodankylä, Utsjoki
Reykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna, Luleå

The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (561.9 km/sec.)

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (17.91nT), the direction is North (4.74nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts moderate storm conditions right now (-66nT)

Latest news

Monday, 24 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

Saturday, 22 March 2025

Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March

Wednesday, 5 March 2025

Coronal hole faces Earth

More news

Latest forum messages

Large Coronal Hole 25 116 Aurora photography hints for those of us with smartphones 43 Photographing auroras 34 AR4043 8 More on an art than a science 3

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

Donate SpaceWeatherLive Pro