Viewing archive of Friday, 25 July 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Jul 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 206 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jul 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
25/0702Z from Region 2121 (N08E30). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (26 Jul, 27 Jul)
and likely to be low with a slight chance for an M-class flare on day
three (28 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
387 km/s at 25/1501Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 25/1259Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 25/0612Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jul), quiet levels on
day two (27 Jul) and quiet to active levels on day three (28 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jul 107 Predicted 26 Jul-28 Jul 110/115/120 90 Day Mean 25 Jul 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jul 006/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jul 007/007 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jul-28 Jul 007/008-006/005-009/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jul to 28 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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