Viewing archive of Wednesday, 3 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 246 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
03/1354Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (04 Sep, 05 Sep,
06 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
479 km/s at 03/0551Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 03/2041Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at 03/1944Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 4 pfu at
03/1800Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3069 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (04 Sep, 05 Sep)
and quiet to active levels on day three (06 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 Sep 138 Predicted 04 Sep-06 Sep 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 03 Sep 130
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Sep 010/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Sep 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Sep-06 Sep 007/010-007/008-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Sep to 06 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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