Viewing archive of Thursday, 11 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 254 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24
hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M2 event observed at
11/1526Z. There are currently 9 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (12 Sep, 13
Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
404 km/s at 11/0248Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 10/2252Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 11/0356Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 28 pfu at
11/0515Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 154 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to major storm levels on day one (12 Sep), active to
severe storm levels on day two (13 Sep) and unsettled to minor storm
levels on day three (14 Sep). Protons are expected to cross threshold on
days one and two (12 Sep, 13 Sep) and are expected to cross threshold on
day three (14 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 85% | 85% | 85% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 99% | 99% | 90% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 151 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 152/150/150 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 129
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 009/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 028/040-037/060-018/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 45% | 40% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 45% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 85% | 90% | 75% |
All times in UTC
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