Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 September 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at 28/0258Z from Region 2173 (S17W39). There are currently 7 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (29 Sep, 30 Sep, 01 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 452 km/s at 28/1113Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2101Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0949Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1208 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Sep, 30 Sep) and quiet levels on day three (01 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one through three (29 Sep - 01 Oct)
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton15%20%20%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Sep 181
  Predicted   29 Sep-01 Oct 185/190/195
  90 Day Mean        28 Sep 135

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep  012/016
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Sep  009/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  007/010-007/010-007/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%35%25%

All times in UTC

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