Viewing archive of Sunday, 28 September 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Sep 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 271 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Sep 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
28/0258Z from Region 2173 (S17W39). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(29 Sep, 30 Sep, 01 Oct).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
452 km/s at 28/1113Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 27/2101Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 28/0949Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1208 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (29 Sep, 30 Sep)
and quiet levels on day three (01 Oct). Protons have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on days one through three (29 Sep - 01 Oct)
III. Event Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 Sep 181 Predicted 29 Sep-01 Oct 185/190/195 90 Day Mean 28 Sep 135
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Sep 012/016 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Sep 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct 007/010-007/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Sep to 01 Oct
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 35% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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