Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 October 2014

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Oct 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 303 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Oct 2014

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 30/0135Z from Region 2192 (S15W94). There are currently 10 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on day one (31 Oct) and likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (01 Nov, 02 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 365 km/s at 30/0844Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 30/2003Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 30/0808Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2252 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (31 Oct, 01 Nov, 02 Nov). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on day one (31 Oct).
III. Event Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
Class M25%25%25%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton10%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Oct 140
  Predicted   31 Oct-02 Nov 130/130/130
  90 Day Mean        30 Oct 141

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Oct  007/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Oct  007/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Oct-02 Nov  008/008-008/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Oct to 02 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm25%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%35%35%

All times in UTC

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