Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 November 2014

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2014 Nov 06 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Nov 2014	138	009
07 Nov 2014	140	010
08 Nov 2014	140	010

Bulletin

Another 3 M flares were produced by NOAA AR 2205. The largest was an M5.4 flare peaking at 3:46 UT, and was preceded by an M3.2 flare peaking at 1:39 UT. At 19:44 UT it produced an M2.9 flare. Three partial halo CME events were associated with the recent M flaring activity of NOAA AR 2205. Their first appearance in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view is recorded respectively at November 5 10:00UT, November 5 19:48 UT and November 6 4:00 UT. They are associated with the following M flaring events from region 2205: respectively M7.9 at 9:47 UT, M2.9 at 19:44 UT and M5.4 at 3:46 UT). All three partial halo CME's have moderate angular widths of between 150 and 180 degrees. The bulk of the mass is in all cases expelled slightly north of the ecliptic. While the first one is a clearly weaker and narrower event, the other two are somewhat stronger and wider with clear equatorial components. Moderate projected speeds of around 500 km/s are recorded for all three events. While the first event is unlikely to be geoeffective, some glancing blows from the other two events are possible but their impact is not expected to be very significant. These may occur in the timeframe of late November 8, November 9. Flaring at M level is expected to continue from region 2205 with also a slight chance for an X flare. Solar wind speed continued to increase at the start of the reporting period, peaking just below 600 km/s after 19:30 UT. It decreased afterwards to levels around 500 km/s presently. The total magnetic field was rather stable decreasing from around the 7 nT range to around the 6 nT range. Bz was markedly negative at the start of the reporting period with values close to -6nT but was later mostly positive. Correspondingly, periods of local unsettled geomagnetic conditions (local K Dourbes 3) occurred at the start of the reporting period later restoring to quiet conditions (both NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-2). Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to persist for the coming days with active geomagnetic periods possible within otherwise quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions. Weak disturbances are later possible due to possible glancing blows of the recent CME's from region 2205 by late November 8, November 9.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Nov 2014

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	021
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	104 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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