Viewing archive of Wednesday, 10 December 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 344 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Dec 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/0924Z. There are currently 6 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (11 Dec, 12 Dec,
13 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
571 km/s at 10/0028Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 10/0157Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 09/2126Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2140 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (11 Dec), quiet levels on
day two (12 Dec) and quiet to active levels on day three (13 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Dec 150 Predicted 11 Dec-13 Dec 155/165/170 90 Day Mean 10 Dec 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Dec 012/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Dec 009/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Dec-13 Dec 008/008-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Dec to 13 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 10% | 55% |
All times in UTC
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