Viewing archive of Wednesday, 31 December 2014
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2014 Dec 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 365 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Dec 2014IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
31/0648Z from Region 2253 (S06E48). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (01 Jan, 02 Jan,
03 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
660 km/s at 30/2126Z. Total IMF reached 7 nT at 31/1702Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 31/1459Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3631 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on days one, two, and three (01 Jan,
02 Jan, 03 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Dec 134 Predicted 01 Jan-03 Jan 140/140/145 90 Day Mean 31 Dec 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Dec 014/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Dec 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Jan-03 Jan 012/010-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Jan to 03 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 45% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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