Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 January 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 7 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Jan 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C4 event observed at
07/1151Z from Region 2253 (S06W44). There are currently 6 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (08 Jan, 09 Jan, 10 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to severe storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 512 km/s at 07/0616Z. Total IMF reached 22 nT at 07/0852Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -21 nT at 07/0856Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 282
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (08 Jan), quiet to
active levels on day two (09 Jan) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (10 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Jan 147 Predicted 08 Jan-10 Jan 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 07 Jan 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Jan 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Jan 028/042 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Jan-10 Jan 015/020-013/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Jan to 10 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 65% | 40% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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