Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 January 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jan 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 25 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jan 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
25/0229Z. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares on days one, two, and three (26 Jan, 27 Jan,
28 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 389 km/s at
25/0302Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 25/2042Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 25/1410Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 147 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (26 Jan, 27 Jan) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (28 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jan 127 Predicted 26 Jan-28 Jan 130/140/145 90 Day Mean 25 Jan 151
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jan 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jan 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jan-28 Jan 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jan to 28 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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