Viewing archive of Saturday, 21 February 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 52 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Feb 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
21/0502Z from Region 2286 beyond the west limb. There are currently 4
numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (22 Feb,
23 Feb, 24 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
396 km/s at 20/2320Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/1927Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 20/2237Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 399 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (22 Feb), unsettled levels on
day two (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (24 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Feb 116 Predicted 22 Feb-24 Feb 120/120/120 90 Day Mean 21 Feb 148
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Feb 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Feb 008/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Feb-24 Feb 012/015-011/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Feb to 24 Feb
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 30% | 30% |
All times in UTC
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