Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 February 2015

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Feb 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 53 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Feb 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (23 Feb, 24 Feb, 25 Feb).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 370 km/s at 21/2125Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 21/2129Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at 21/2331Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24 Feb, 25 Feb).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Feb 118
  Predicted   23 Feb-25 Feb 120/120/130
  90 Day Mean        22 Feb 148

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Feb  008/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Feb  006/006
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Feb-25 Feb  008/010-007/008-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Feb to 25 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%15%15%
Minor storm05%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%25%25%
Major-severe storm35%20%20%

All times in UTC

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