Viewing archive of Saturday, 28 February 2015

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2015 Feb 28 1332 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 28 Feb 2015 until 02 Mar 2015
Solar flares

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
28 Feb 2015118010
01 Mar 2015120010
02 Mar 2015122007

Bulletin

Solar activity is at C-class level. A new active region (NOAA 2294) has emerged south of NOAA AR 2292 and evolved into a beta-gamma configuration of its magnetic field. It produced a C5.6 flare peaking at 09:39 UT. A possible associated CME will be investigated when the images become available. More C-class flares can be expected, with minor chances of M-class flaring. Geomagnetic activity has been quiet, the fast speed solar wind from the southern polar coronal hole may arrive in the next hours raising conditions to active levels with isolated minor storm periods possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 045, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Feb 2015

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux118
AK Chambon La Forêt008
AK Wingst003
Estimated Ap002
Estimated international sunspot number042 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 18:45 UTC

Current data suggests there is a high possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Arkhangelsk

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Riga
Perm, Saint Petersburg, Yaroslavl
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.06nT), the direction is moderately South (-13.45nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-143nT)

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Latest alerts

19:00 UTC - Geomagnetic activity

Moderate G2 geomagnetic storm (Kp6) Threshold Reached: 18:38 UTC

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Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 18:28 UTC

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Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 15:20 UTC

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Strong G3 geomagnetic storm (Kp7) Threshold Reached: 14:18 UTC

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