Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 May 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 May 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 126 Issued at 2200Z on 06 May 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X2 event observed at
05/2211Z from Region 2339 (N12E70). There are currently 5 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three
(07 May, 08 May, 09 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 511 km/s at 06/0735Z. Total IMF reached 18 nT at 06/0615Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 06/1216Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) and quiet levels on
days two and three (08 May, 09 May).
III. Event Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| Class M | 55% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 May 136 Predicted 07 May-09 May 145/150/150 90 Day Mean 06 May 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 May 011/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 May 019/026 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 May-09 May 011/012-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 May to 09 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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