Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M7 event observed at
25/0816Z from Region 2371 (N12W53). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (26 Jun,
27 Jun) and expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares and a
slight chance for an X-class flare on day three (28 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 710 km/s at 25/0830Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 25/0819Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -10 nT at 25/0625Z. Protons
greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7
pfu at 25/2025Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 12360 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (26 Jun), unsettled to
major storm levels on day two (27 Jun) and active to major storm levels
on day three (28 Jun). Protons are expected to cross threshold on day
one (26 Jun) and are expected to cross threshold on days two and three
(27 Jun, 28 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Proton | 80% | 95% | 95% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Jun 102 Predicted 26 Jun-28 Jun 100/100/105 90 Day Mean 25 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Jun 0NA/017 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Jun 022/031 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Jun-28 Jun 013/015-025/045-037/060
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Jun to 28 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 40% | 40% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 25% | 25% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 79% | 79% |
All times in UTC
Latest news
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Wednesday, 5 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Latest forum messages
Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 1644AR4043 17Large Coronal Hole 25 152Photographing auroras 36Aurora photography hints for those of us with smartphones 43
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
09:15 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 08:59 UTC
06:27 UTC - Hemispheric Power Index
The OVATION model predicts the Hemispheric Power Index to reach 54GW at 07:01 UTC
06:00 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 05:51 UTC
00:57 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M2.05 flare
00:33 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.71)
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/27 | M2.0 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/26 | Kp6+ (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 132.3 -22.3 |
| Last 30 days | 131.2 -21.8 |