Viewing archive of Monday, 29 June 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jun 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C2 event observed at
29/1807Z from Region 2373 (N15E55). There are currently 3 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with
a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 464 km/s at
29/1052Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 29/0730Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -5 nT at 29/0622Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 5 pfu at 29/0240Z.
Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak
level of 7557 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and three (30 Jun, 02 Jul) and quiet
to unsettled levels on day two (01 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 097 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 100/105/110 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 124
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 012/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 005/005-007/008-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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