Viewing archive of Friday, 10 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
10/1613Z from Region 2385 (N07W53). There are currently 8 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (11 Jul) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (12 Jul, 13 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed,
as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 374 km/s at
10/2058Z. Total IMF reached 13 nT at 10/2054Z. The maximum southward
component of Bz reached -6 nT at 10/1925Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV
at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 2748 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (11 Jul), unsettled
to active levels on day two (12 Jul) and quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (13 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| Class M | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jul 129 Predicted 11 Jul-13 Jul 125/120/120 90 Day Mean 10 Jul 125
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jul 007/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 017/025-015/018-009/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jul to 13 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 55% | 50% | 30% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
Latest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
Unspecified geomagnetic activity 2180AR4048 82AR4046 152We are launching a dating app! SpaceWeatherLove! Download it today! 6Deep Flare Net 2
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
01:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 01:32 UTC
Tuesday, 1 April 2025
22:51 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M2.5 flare
22:30 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.45)
07:15 UTC - 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 01/04/2025 06:45 UTC Maximum Time: 01/04/2025 06:45 UTC Duration: 1 minutes. Peak flux: 190 sfu
07:06 UTC - Solar flare
Strong M5.61 flare
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/04/01 | M2.4 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| Last 30 days | 128.1 -22.5 |