Viewing archive of Thursday, 23 July 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Jul 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one and two (24 Jul, 25
Jul) and expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on
day three (26 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 559 km/s at 23/1707Z. Total IMF reached 11 nT at 23/0314Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -11 nT at 23/0442Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and two (24 Jul, 25 Jul) and
quiet to unsettled levels on day three (26 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 089 Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 090/095/100 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 118
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 009/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 018/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 014/015-011/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
NorilskLatest news
Friday, 28 March 2025
X1.1 solar flare
Monday, 24 March 2025
Coronal hole faces Earth
Saturday, 22 March 2025
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
Latest forum messages
More topicsSupport SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!
Latest alerts
16:45 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.61)
02:09 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.54 flare from sunspot region 4048
01:42 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.24)
Saturday, 29 March 2025
23:21 UTC - Solar flare
Moderate M1.91 flare from sunspot region 4048
22:51 UTC - Radio Blackout
Minor R1 radio blackout in progress (≥M1 - current: M1.1)
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/03/28 | X1.1 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/30 | M1.5 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/27 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 127.5 -27.1 |
| Last 30 days | 127.5 -24.7 |