Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 August 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Aug 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (06 Aug,
07 Aug, 08 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
460 km/s at 05/1445Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 04/2159Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 05/1939Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1206 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Aug), unsettled to
minor storm levels on day two (07 Aug) and quiet to active levels on day
three (08 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| Class M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Aug 112 Predicted 06 Aug-08 Aug 110/115/115 90 Day Mean 05 Aug 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Aug 009/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Aug 006/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Aug-08 Aug 008/010-018/023-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Aug to 08 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 50% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 05% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 70% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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