Viewing archive of Monday, 17 August 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Aug 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (18 Aug,
19 Aug, 20 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 622 km/s at 17/0050Z. Total IMF reached 8 nT at 17/0809Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 17/0817Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 8750
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (18 Aug), unsettled
to active levels on day two (19 Aug) and quiet levels on day three (20
Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Aug 087 Predicted 18 Aug-20 Aug 090/090/090 90 Day Mean 17 Aug 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Aug 027/039 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Aug 023/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Aug-20 Aug 021/025-015/018-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Aug to 20 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 45% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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