Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Sunday, 23 August 2015

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2015

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been at moderate levels for the past 24 hours. The largest solar event of the period was a M3 event observed at 22/2124Z from Region 2403 (S15W04). There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one, two, and three (24 Aug, 25 Aug, 26 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to major storm levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of 611 km/s at 23/1403Z. Total IMF reached 15 nT at 23/0740Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 23/0731Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 207 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (24 Aug) and quiet to active levels on days two and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug). Protons greater than 10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days two and three (25 Aug, 26 Aug).

III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug

Class M	55%	55%	55%
Class X	10%	10%	10%
Proton	05%	10%	10%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       23 Aug 133
  Predicted   24 Aug-26 Aug 120/120/125
  90 Day Mean        23 Aug 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug  008/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Aug  025/032
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug  020/028-014/020-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	45%	35%	30%
Minor storm	25%	15%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	05%	10%	15%
Minor storm	20%	25%	30%
Major-severe storm	70%	50%	40%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 21:40 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.32nT), the direction is North (6.83nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-131nT)

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