Viewing archive of Monday, 24 August 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Aug 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Aug 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
24/0733Z from Region 2403 (S15W18). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be moderate
with a slight chance for an X-class flare on days one and two (25 Aug,
26 Aug) and likely to be moderate on day three (27 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
590 km/s at 23/2106Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at 24/1720Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at 24/0655Z. Electrons greater
than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1700 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25 Aug, 26 Aug)
and quiet to active levels on day three (27 Aug). Protons greater than
10 Mev have a slight chance of crossing threshold on days one and two
(25 Aug, 26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| Class M | 65% | 60% | 55% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Aug 128 Predicted 25 Aug-27 Aug 130/130/135 90 Day Mean 24 Aug 111
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Aug 023/029 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Aug 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 011/016-008/012-016/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug to 27 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 30% | 45% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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