Viewing archive of Friday, 25 September 2015
Solar activity report
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 268 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Sep 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
III. Event Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| Class M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Sep 120 Predicted 26 Sep-28 Sep 115/110/115 90 Day Mean 25 Sep 104
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Sep 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Sep 009/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Sep-28 Sep 013/015-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Sep to 28 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 40% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Sodankylä, UtsjokiReykjavik
Kirkenes, Tromsø
Murmansk
Kiruna
Latest news
Coronal hole faces Earth
Strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch for 23 March
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Latest alerts
Coronal hole faces Earth
The anticipated strong G3 geomagnetic storm watch never materialized as the coronal mass ejection that was supposed to arrive early yesterday didn't arrive until today just past midnight UTC. The impact was very lackluster with the Bt (total strength of the IMF) increasing to a moderate 15nT at best and the solar wind speed reaching just 420km/s. A far cry from the anticipated 700 to 800km/s. That once again goes to show how hard it is to forecast space weather events and any resulting geomagnetic conditions. We remain under the influence of the CME and high latitude sky watchers should remain alert for some nice aurora displays but middle latitude sky watchers will probably have to wait for the next opportunity.
13:55 UTC - Coronal hole
A transequatorial coronal hole is facing Earth. Enhanced solar wind could arrive in ~3 days
02:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Active geomagnetic conditions (Kp4) Threshold Reached: 02:33 UTC
Saturday, 22 March 2025
23:45 UTC - Geomagnetic activity
Minor G1 geomagnetic storm (Kp5) Threshold Reached: 23:37 UTC
Space weather facts
| Last X-flare | 2025/02/23 | X2.0 |
| Last M-flare | 2025/03/21 | M1.2 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2025/03/22 | Kp6- (G2) |
| Spotless days | |
|---|---|
| Last spotless day | 2022/06/08 |
| Monthly mean Sunspot Number | |
|---|---|
| February 2025 | 154.6 +17.6 |
| March 2025 | 140.6 -14 |
| Last 30 days | 138.7 -14.7 |