Viewing archive of Monday, 7 December 2015
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2015 Dec 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2015IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
07/0419Z from Region 2465 (S05E58). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (08 Dec) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (09 Dec, 10 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak
speed of 711 km/s at 07/1700Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 07/1047Z. The
maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at 07/0649Z. Electrons
greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 3587
pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on days one and three (08 Dec, 10
Dec) and quiet to active levels on day two (09 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| Class M | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Dec 101 Predicted 08 Dec-10 Dec 105/110/110 90 Day Mean 07 Dec 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec 026/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec 015/022 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec 016/020-014/014-014/016
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec to 10 Dec
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 40% | 50% |
All times in UTC
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