Viewing archive of Thursday, 18 February 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Feb 18 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Solar flares

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Solar protons

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
18 Feb 2016	100	021
19 Feb 2016	098	012
20 Feb 2016	094	007

Bulletin

Six C flares were released by NOAA AR 2497 in the past 24 hours, and one low C flare by new region 2503. The brightest flare was a C7.4 flare produced by AR 2497 which peaked at 18:13 UT on February 17. C flares (probability 95%) are expected within the next 24 hours, with a chance for an M flare (probability 45%), especially from AR 2497. A bright CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 18:12 UT on February 17, but is not expected to be geoeffective. The Earth is currently in a coronal hole high speed stream. In the past 24 hours, the solar wind speed measured by ACE has increased from about 520 km/s towards about 620 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has gradually decreased from 9 nT to current values of about 5 nT. Over the past 24 hours, quiet to minor geomagnetic storm levels were registered (K Dourbes between 2 and 5; NOAA Kp between 3 and 6), as a combined effect of the high speed stream and southward excursions of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on February 18 under the influence of the high speed stream, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on February 19 and 20.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 039, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 17 Feb 2016

Wolf number Catania	057
10cm solar flux	100
AK Chambon La Forêt	047
AK Wingst	036
Estimated Ap	037
Estimated international sunspot number	039 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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