Viewing archive of Saturday, 9 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 100 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
09/1613Z from Region 2529 (N10E54). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (10 Apr,
11 Apr, 12 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 376 km/s at 09/1553Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
09/0506Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -3 nT at
09/1612Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one, two, and three (10 Apr, 11 Apr, 12
Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 Apr 106 Predicted 10 Apr-12 Apr 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 09 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Apr 006/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Apr 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Apr-12 Apr 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Apr to 12 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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