Viewing archive of Wednesday, 13 April 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Apr 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Apr 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (14 Apr,
15 Apr, 16 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 698 km/s at 13/0614Z. Total IMF
reached 14 nT at 13/0014Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 13/0007Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 4307 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (14 Apr), quiet to
active levels on day two (15 Apr) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (16 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Apr 108 Predicted 14 Apr-16 Apr 105/105/105 90 Day Mean 13 Apr 098
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Apr 012/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Apr 024/029 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 018/030-010/012-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Apr to 16 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 75% | 45% | 25% |
All times in UTC
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