Viewing archive of Thursday, 19 May 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 May 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (20 May,
21 May, 22 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 18/2246Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 19/2019Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
19/0807Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1263 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (20 May), quiet to
active levels on day two (21 May) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (22 May).
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 May 099 Predicted 20 May-22 May 100/100/100 90 Day Mean 19 May 093
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 May 012/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 May 007/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May 018/022-012/016-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 60% | 50% | 40% |
All times in UTC
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