Viewing archive of Monday, 13 June 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Jun 13 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Jun 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C3 event observed at
13/0552Z from Region 2552 (N14, L=002). There are currently 2 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (14 Jun,
15 Jun, 16 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 12-2100Z to 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 624 km/s at 13/0532Z. Total IMF reached 12
nT at 12/2225Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -8 nT at
12/2208Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 313 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (14 Jun) and quiet to active levels on
days two and three (15 Jun, 16 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 13 Jun 091 Predicted 14 Jun-16 Jun 092/094/090 90 Day Mean 13 Jun 091
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Jun 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Jun 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Jun-16 Jun 006/006-010/012-009/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Jun to 16 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 40% | 35% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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