Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 August 2016

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Aug 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 229 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Aug 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 5 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on days one and two (17 Aug, 18 Aug) and expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on day three (19 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 351 km/s at 16/2032Z. Total IMF reached 12 nT at 16/2018Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -12 nT at 16/2018Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 6711 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (17 Aug, 19 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day two (18 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 Aug 087
  Predicted   17 Aug-19 Aug 085/085/085
  90 Day Mean        16 Aug 086

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 15 Aug  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 16 Aug  006/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 17 Aug-19 Aug  009/006-007/008-009/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Aug to 19 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%25%
Minor storm10%05%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm30%15%25%
Major-severe storm40%05%40%

All times in UTC

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

SpaceWeatherLive Pro
Support SpaceWeatherLive with our merchandise
Check out our merchandise

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare2024/12/08X2.2
Last M-flare2024/12/23M8.9
Last geomagnetic storm2024/12/17Kp5+ (G1)
Spotless days
Last spotless day2022/06/08
Monthly mean Sunspot Number
November 2024152.5 -13.9
December 2024106.6 -45.9
Last 30 days116.1 -41.8

This day in history*

Solar flares
12024M8.9
22015M6.75
31998M3.34
42013M2.36
52013M1.97
DstG
12002-67
22000-62G2
31989-60
42014-57
51982-53G1
*since 1994

Social networks