Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 August 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Aug 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 236 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on days one, two, and three (24 Aug,
25 Aug, 26 Aug).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 448 km/s at 23/2052Z. Total IMF
reached 16 nT at 23/2021Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 23/1939Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 293 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (24 Aug), quiet to
active levels on day two (25 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (26 Aug).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 081 Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 085/085/085 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 084
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 006/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 011/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 013/012-011/012-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug to 26 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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