Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 September 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Sep 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 252 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Sep 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 3 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (09 Sep,
10 Sep, 11 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 523 km/s at 08/0043Z. Total IMF reached 7
nT at 08/0400Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
08/0437Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 14152 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one, two, and three (09 Sep,
10 Sep, 11 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 Sep 095 Predicted 09 Sep-11 Sep 095/095/092 90 Day Mean 08 Sep 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Sep 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Sep 012/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Sep-11 Sep 009/008-008/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Sep to 11 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Iqaluit, NUNuuk
Reykjavik
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