Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 September 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Sep 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Sep 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on day one (12 Sep) and expected to
be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for
an M-class flare on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 390 km/s at 10/2250Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
11/1713Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/1719Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 11499 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (12 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (13 Sep, 14 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Sep 086 Predicted 12 Sep-14 Sep 086/082/080 90 Day Mean 11 Sep 086
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Sep 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Sep 004/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Sep-14 Sep 012/015-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Sep to 14 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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