Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 September 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Sep 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 264 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Sep 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for C-class flares on days one, two, and three (21 Sep, 22
Sep, 23 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 751 km/s at 20/1106Z. Total IMF
reached 19 nT at 19/2243Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-13 nT at 20/0023Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (21 Sep) and quiet to
unsettled levels on days two and three (22 Sep, 23 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Sep 085 Predicted 21 Sep-23 Sep 082/080/080 90 Day Mean 20 Sep 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Sep 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Sep 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Sep-23 Sep 010/012-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Sep to 23 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 35% |
All times in UTC
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