Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 November 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Nov 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11
Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 10/1823Z. Total IMF reached 14
nT at 10/1639Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
10/1402Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 1032 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12
Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (13 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Nov 080 Predicted 11 Nov-13 Nov 080/080/080 90 Day Mean 10 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov 014/019 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov 021/080-018/080-015/080
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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