Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 November 2016

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Nov 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2016

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (11 Nov, 12 Nov, 13 Nov).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 462 km/s at 10/1823Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 10/1639Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at 10/1402Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1032 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on days one and two (11 Nov, 12 Nov) and unsettled to active levels on day three (13 Nov).

III. Event Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       10 Nov 080
  Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov 080/080/080
  90 Day Mean        10 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  005/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 10 Nov  014/019
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  021/080-018/080-015/080

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov to 13 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	35%	30%	30%
Minor storm	20%	15%	10%
Major-severe storm	01%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	15%	15%	15%
Minor storm	20%	20%	20%
Major-severe storm	25%	20%	20%

All times in UTC

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G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 5
Threshold reached: 21:40 UTC

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Oulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (13.32nT), the direction is North (6.83nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-131nT)

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