Viewing archive of Friday, 25 November 2016
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2016 Nov 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 330 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Nov 2016IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (26
Nov, 27 Nov, 28 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at unsettled to major storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 870 km/s at 25/0406Z. Total IMF
reached 11 nT at 25/0251Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-8 nT at 25/0405Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit
reached a peak level of 9557 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on day one (26 Nov), quiet to unsettled
levels on day two (27 Nov) and quiet levels on day three (28 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 Nov 081 Predicted 26 Nov-28 Nov 082/083/083 90 Day Mean 25 Nov 085
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Nov 017/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Nov 023/033 Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Nov-28 Nov 015/015-010/010-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Nov to 28 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 15% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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