Viewing archive of Friday, 2 December 2016

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Issued: 2016 Dec 02 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Valid from 1230 UTC, 02 Dec 2016 until 04 Dec 2016
Solar flares

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Solar protons

Quiet

10cm fluxAp
02 Dec 2016085002
03 Dec 2016084003
04 Dec 2016084005

Bulletin

Only two B-class flares were observed during the period, the strongest a B2.9 at 17:11UT by NOAA 2612. There are currently 4 sunspot groups visible on the solar disk, mostly small and with relatively simple magnetic configurations. NOAA 2615 remains the most prominent and complex region. No earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10MeV proton flux was at nominal levels.

Quiet flaring conditions are expected, with a chance on an isolated C-class event.

Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels, except during the brief passage of a transient structure around midnight. Current solar wind speed values are around 380 km/s. Bz has been fluctuating between -3 nT and +4 nT during the entire period. The interplanetary magnetic field was mostly directed away from the Sun. Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at nominal values. The particle stream from a small positive coronal hole (CH; S15W18) may mildly affect the earth-environment late on 4 or on 5 December.

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels and is expected to remain so. Unsettled conditions are possible on 4 or 5 December in response to the arrival of the CH's particle stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 065, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Dec 2016

Wolf number Catania///
10cm solar flux085
AK Chambon La Forêt003
AK Wingst001
Estimated Ap001
Estimated international sunspot number060 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

DayBeginMaxEndLocStrengthOP10cmCatania/NOAARadio burst types
None

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 16:44 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Surgut

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Kazan, Perm, Yakutsk, Yekaterinburg
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.01nT), the direction is moderately South (-15.43nT).
The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-150nT)

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