Viewing archive of Sunday, 15 January 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jan 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 15 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Jan 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 2 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (16 Jan,
17 Jan, 18 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 349 km/s at 15/0228Z. Total IMF reached 5 nT at
15/1742Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
15/1118Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3432 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on day one (16 Jan), quiet to unsettled levels on
day two (17 Jan) and unsettled to minor storm levels on day three (18
Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Jan 078 Predicted 16 Jan-18 Jan 077/077/077 90 Day Mean 15 Jan 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Jan 003/002 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Jan 006/005 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Jan-18 Jan 005/005-007/008-019/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Jan to 18 Jan
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 05% | 15% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 20% | 70% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Oulu, Rovaniemi, SodankyläTrondheim
Arkhangelsk, Vorkuta
Luleå, Umeå
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