Viewing archive of Monday, 29 May 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 149 Issued at 2200Z on 29 May 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
28/2313Z from Region 2659 (N13W70). There are currently 1 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (30 May) and expected to
be very low on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 405 km/s at 29/1206Z. Total IMF reached 17
nT at 29/0908Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -13 nT at
29/1241Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 490 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (30 May) and quiet levels
on days two and three (31 May, 01 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| Class M | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 May 076 Predicted 30 May-01 Jun 074/073/072 90 Day Mean 29 May 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 May 032/049 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 May 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 May-01 Jun 007/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 May to 01 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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