Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 May 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 May 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 150 Issued at 2200Z on 30 May 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares on day one (31 May) and expected to be very low on days two and three (01 Jun, 02 Jun).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 820 km/s at 29/2103Z. Total IMF reached 9 nT at 30/0235Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at 30/0236Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 315 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on days one and two (31 May, 01 Jun) and quiet to active levels on day three (02 Jun).
III. Event Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
Class M05%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 May 074
  Predicted   31 May-02 Jun 072/072/072
  90 Day Mean        30 May 076

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 May  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 May  008/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 May-02 Jun  005/005-005/005-011/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 May to 02 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%20%

All times in UTC

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