Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 June 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Jun 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Jun 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (30
Jun, 01 Jul, 02 Jul).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed
reached a peak of 466 km/s at 29/0145Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at
29/0642Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at
29/0728Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 548 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (30 Jun, 01 Jul) and quiet to
active levels on day three (02 Jul).
III. Event Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Jun 072 Predicted 30 Jun-02 Jul 072/072/072 90 Day Mean 29 Jun 076
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Jun 005/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Jun-02 Jul 005/005-006/005-008/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Jun to 02 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 15% | 45% |
All times in UTC
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