Solar activity report

Viewing archive of Friday, 4 August 2017

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 216 Issued at 2200Z on 04 Aug 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (05 Aug, 06 Aug, 07 Aug).

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 783 km/s at 04/1541Z. Total IMF reached 21 nT at 04/0620Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -17 nT at 04/0626Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 432 pfu.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast

The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels on day one (05 Aug), quiet to active levels on day two (06 Aug) and quiet to unsettled levels on day three (07 Aug).

III. Event Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug

Class M	01%	01%	01%
Class X	01%	01%	01%
Proton	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  Observed       04 Aug 074
  Predicted   05 Aug-07 Aug 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        04 Aug 075

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  Observed Afr/Ap 03 Aug  011/010
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 Aug  024/033
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 Aug-07 Aug  016/020-011/012-008/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Aug to 07 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes
Active	35%	30%	15%
Minor storm	25%	10%	05%
Major-severe storm	05%	01%	01%

B. High Latitudes
Active	10%	15%	15%
Minor storm	25%	30%	25%
Major-severe storm	65%	45%	25%

All times in UTC

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G2 - Moderate geomagnetic storm

Observed Kp: 6
Threshold reached: 18:45 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Petrozavodsk, Surgut, Syktyvkar

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following middle latitude regions in the near future

Riga
Moscow, Perm, Saint Petersburg, Yaroslavl

The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (16.13nT), the direction is moderately South (-13.41nT).

The Disturbance Storm Time index predicts strong storm conditions right now (-145nT)

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