Viewing archive of Thursday, 31 August 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Aug 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 243 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Aug 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a C1 event observed at
30/2311Z from Region 2674 (N14E64). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is likely to be low with a
slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (01 Sep,
02 Sep, 03 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours.
Solar wind speed reached a peak of 719 km/s at 31/1217Z. Total IMF
reached 31 nT at 31/0618Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached
-19 nT at 31/0539Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to minor storm levels on day one (01 Sep), quiet to
active levels on day two (02 Sep) and quiet to unsettled levels on day
three (03 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Aug 092 Predicted 01 Sep-03 Sep 092/092/091 90 Day Mean 31 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Aug 005/005 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Aug 025/034 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Sep-03 Sep 016/024-015/016-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Sep to 03 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
TórshavnOulu, Rovaniemi, Kuopio, Sodankylä
Trondheim
Arkhangelsk
Kiruna, Luleå, Sundsvall, Umeå
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