Viewing archive of Wednesday, 6 September 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Sep 06 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 249 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Sep 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a X9 event observed at
06/1202Z from Region 2673 (S09W45). There are currently 4 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate
with a chance for X-class flares on days one, two, and three (07 Sep, 08
Sep, 09 Sep).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 494 km/s at 06/0259Z. Total IMF reached 5
nT at 06/0136Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -2 nT at
06/1325Z. Protons greater than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 155 pfu at 05/2100Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 7224 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to severe storm levels on day one (07 Sep) and active
to severe storm levels on days two and three (08 Sep, 09 Sep). Protons
are expected to cross threshold on day one (07 Sep), have a chance of
crossing threshold on day two (08 Sep) and have a slight chance of
crossing threshold on day three (09 Sep).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Proton | 85% | 25% | 15% |
| PCAF | red | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 06 Sep 133 Predicted 07 Sep-09 Sep 135/135/135 90 Day Mean 06 Sep 080
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Sep 011/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Sep 019/037 Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Sep-09 Sep 032/045-035/052-031/045
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Sep to 09 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Major-severe storm | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 45% | 55% | 60% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NTCurrent data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Edmonton, AB, Iqaluit, NU, Saskatoon, SK, Whitehorse, YTNuuk
Juneau, AK
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