Viewing archive of Friday, 24 November 2017
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Nov 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2017IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (25 Nov, 26 Nov, 27 Nov).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 409 km/s at 24/1905Z. Total IMF reached 8
nT at 24/1710Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -7 nT at
24/1726Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 2976 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to active levels on days one and three (25 Nov, 27 Nov)
and quiet levels on day two (26 Nov).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Nov 074 Predicted 25 Nov-27 Nov 073/073/071 90 Day Mean 24 Nov 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov 009/010-006/005-011/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov to 27 Nov
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 01% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 50% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
Yellowknife, NTFairbanks, AK
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