Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 December 2017

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2017 Dec 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 358 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Dec 2017

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for a C-class flare on days one, two, and three (25 Dec, 26 Dec, 27 Dec).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 606 km/s at 24/1556Z. Total IMF reached 14 nT at 24/0722Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -9 nT at 24/0959Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1434 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day one (25 Dec), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (26 Dec) and quiet levels on day three (27 Dec).
III. Event Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Dec 076
  Predicted   25 Dec-27 Dec 075/075/075
  90 Day Mean        24 Dec 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Dec  004/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Dec  011/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Dec-27 Dec  011/012-007/008-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Dec to 27 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm35%30%20%
Major-severe storm35%25%20%

All times in UTC

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