Viewing archive of Saturday, 6 January 2018

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Jan 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 6 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Jan 2018

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 1 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low on days one, two, and three (07 Jan, 08 Jan, 09 Jan).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 319 km/s at 06/0014Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and three (07 Jan, 09 Jan) and quiet to active levels on day two (08 Jan).
III. Event Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
Class M01%01%01%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 Jan 069
  Predicted   07 Jan-09 Jan 070/070/070
  90 Day Mean        06 Jan 072

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 05 Jan  005/004
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 06 Jan  004/004
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 07 Jan-09 Jan  008/005-008/008-007/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Jan to 09 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%30%15%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%20%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm20%40%20%

All times in UTC

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Active geomagnetic conditions

Observed Kp: 4
Threshold reached: 01:33 UTC

Current data suggests there is a moderate possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Gillam, MB, Yellowknife, NT

Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future

Iqaluit, NU
Nuuk
Reykjavik
The strength of the interplanetary magnetic field is moderate (10.49nT), the direction is slightly South (-4.32nT).

S1 - Minor solar radiation storm

Minor impacts on HF radio through polar regions

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