Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 March 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Mar 11 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 70 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Mar 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (12 Mar, 13 Mar, 14 Mar).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 460 km/s at 11/1213Z. Total IMF reached 13
nT at 10/2107Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -4 nT at
11/0407Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 168 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet levels on days one and two (12 Mar, 13 Mar) and quiet to
unsettled levels on day three (14 Mar).
III. Event Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 11 Mar 068 Predicted 12 Mar-14 Mar 068/068/068 90 Day Mean 11 Mar 071
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Mar 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Mar 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Mar-14 Mar 006/005-006/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Mar to 14 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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| Last X-flare | 2024/12/08 | X2.2 |
| Last M-flare | 2024/12/23 | M8.9 |
| Last geomagnetic storm | 2024/12/17 | Kp5+ (G1) |
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