Viewing archive of Thursday, 5 April 2018
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2018 Apr 05 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 95 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Apr 2018IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past 24
hours. There are currently 0 numbered sunspot regions on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be very low
on days one, two, and three (06 Apr, 07 Apr, 08 Apr).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed reached a peak of 432 km/s at 05/2056Z. Total IMF reached 9
nT at 05/1815Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -6 nT at
05/1829Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 855 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (06 Apr) and quiet levels
on days two and three (07 Apr, 08 Apr).
III. Event Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| Class M | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 05 Apr 066 Predicted 06 Apr-08 Apr 067/067/067 90 Day Mean 05 Apr 070
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Apr 004/004 Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Apr 008/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Apr-08 Apr 007/008-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Apr to 08 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 15% |
All times in UTC
Current data suggests there is a slight possibility for aurora to appear at the following high latitude regions in the near future
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